Optimizing Cyst Mapping Surveys through Statistical Analysis of Historical Data

Introduction. An important management tool for red tides or toxic Alexandrium blooms in the Gulf of Maine region is a numerical model of bloom dynamics developed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). Each week during the bloom season, this model is run, providing a “hindcast” simulation of Alexandrium distribution and abundance for the preceding weeks and months, as well as a one-week forecast based on weather predictions. These simulations are posted on a website freely accessible to resource managers in the region. When available, comparisons between the model results and cruise observations are also presented to demonstrate the accuracy of the model predictions.